Insight
The public arc of U.S. data-center power
National TWh estimates and ERCOT request totals are the public numbers we can stand on. We chart published ranges — not a smooth history we did not measure. Siting still turns on a docket ID, not a national curve.
EPRI’s Powering Intelligence 2026 executive summary characterizes a gradual rise in U.S. data-center electricity use from about 70 TWh toward about 150 TWh over the 2014–2023 stretch in its figure description. We do not have verified annual points for each year in that span, so we do not draw them. The first bars we will plot are the 2024 estimate band and the 2030 scenario band.
For 2024, EPRI publishes 177–192 TWh. The LBNL 2025 update cites about 192 TWh, roughly 4.7% of U.S. electricity — the top of that 2024 band, not a second invented year. For 2030, EPRI’s scenario range is roughly 380–790 TWh. LBNL 2025 discusses U.S. electricity share in the neighborhood of 9.5–15.3% by 2030 across scenarios (one framing near 11.8%). Those shares are a published band, not a point we will pretend is exact.
Source: EPRI, Powering Intelligence 2026 executive summary (2024: 177–192 TWh; 2030: roughly 380–790 TWh). LBNL 2025 update cites ~192 TWh / ~4.7% for 2024 — the top of the 2024 bar, not a separate year. See footnotes 1–2. No annual series is drawn for 2014–2023.
Source: 2024 band is EPRI’s published 4–5% “today” range (Powering Intelligence 2026). LBNL’s 2025 update cites ~4.7% for 2024 — inside that band, not a second year. 2030 band is LBNL’s scenario share ~9.5–15.3% (DOE/LBNL publication page); one framing is ~11.8%. EPRI separately discusses 9–17% by 2030. We will not pick a single 2030 percent. Footnotes 1–2.
Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy on AEO2026 data-center servers and Annual Energy Outlook 2026. Server consumption alone, 446–818 billion kWh by 2050 across cases. Servers are a major driver of modeled electricity-demand growth. Not a campus MW and not a Watt Brief forecast. Footnote 3.
Those national bands are energy use. The Texas contrast is peak demand versus proposed large-load paper. ERCOT’s June 18, 2026 Trending Topics PDF states more than 438,000 MW of proposed large-load connection requests, about 89–90% data centers, against an all-time peak demand record of 85,508 MW (August 10, 2023). Public TAC summaries of July 28, 2026 ERCOT panel materials report Batch Zero preliminary eligibility near 205 GW. Requests are not energization.
Source: ERCOT, Trending Topics — new batch connection process (June 18, 2026): >438,000 MW proposed large-load requests; ~89–90% data centers; 85,508 MW all-time peak (Aug. 10, 2023). Batch Zero ~205 GW: ERCOT panel materials / July 28, 2026 data as reported in public TAC summaries. 438,000 MW plotted as 438 GW. Footnotes 4–5.
What Watt Brief watches next
The next public signal is not a new national TWh. It is a clock on an identity — a queue ID, a county vote, a 205 or 206, an 8-K that states interconnection:
- ERCOT LLI / Batch Zero verification paper, PJM large-load / IRAS, SPP HILL. Teaching screens: large-load checker and queue-era facts.
- County votes and overlays — permit stack to press.
- FERC 205 / 206 that name large load — the paper that binds.
Charts and facts on this page use cited public sources or labeled educational heuristics. They are not legal, engineering, or investment advice, and not a comps book. Confirm every number on the issuing agency or laboratory copy. Contact hello@wattbrief.com.
Sources
- EPRI, Powering Intelligence 2026, Executive Summary (2024: 177–192 TWh; 2030: roughly 380–790 TWh).
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / U.S. DOE, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update (eta.lbl.gov publication page). Abstract: data centers could account for 11.8% of U.S. electricity by 2030; scenario range 9.5–15.3%. 2024: ~192 TWh / ~4.7% as cited in the update. Confirm figures on the issuing LBNL/DOE copy.
- Public PDF copy of the LBNL 2025 update (hosted by RTO Insider). Use the LBNL publication page as the record; this file is a readable copy of the same report.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy: data-center server energy use in AEO2026 (446–818 BkWh by 2050 across cases).
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (eia.gov/outlooks/aeo). Data-center servers are a major driver of modeled electricity-demand growth. Narrative PDF: eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO_Narrative.pdf.
- ERCOT, Trending Topics: New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users (June 18, 2026 PDF) — >438,000 MW proposed large-load requests; ~89–90% data centers; 85,508 MW peak (Aug. 10, 2023).
- ERCOT, Batch Zero Verification and Audit PUCT presentation (Aug. 20, 2026 PDF) — large load ≥75 MW; medium 25–<75 MW. Batch Zero preliminary eligibility ~205 GW: July 28, 2026 ERCOT panel / public TAC summaries.
Free charts and calculators. The weekday brief is still the product.